Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 22.495446 26.950686 31.858189 37.638238 44.231828 51.490968 60.058172
2025-05-25 15.196503 20.835330 27.705795 36.574644 47.591846 60.695279 77.313743
2025-06-01 11.392062 17.397319 25.312683 36.255821 50.710740 68.853035 93.008359
2025-06-08 8.521201 14.383800 22.683316 34.870618 51.834842 74.100211 104.940153
2025-06-15 7.133340 13.109133 22.086873 35.928693 56.008774 83.289606 122.226524
2025-06-22 5.593754 11.248900 20.286637 34.926725 57.052986 88.141340 133.806563
2025-06-29 4.841059 10.506215 20.036959 36.106958 61.198545 97.392728 151.751019
2025-07-06 3.686973 8.794577 17.941237 34.115882 60.348392 99.348043 159.412427
2025-07-13 3.248248 8.328192 17.861660 35.319579 64.418648 108.617599 177.903479
2025-07-20 2.843488 7.838160 17.655263 36.251338 68.067700 117.381850 195.974900
2025-07-27 2.545621 7.508838 17.688234 37.569681 72.386846 127.324521 216.156175
2025-08-03 2.274534 7.177830 17.663288 38.756465 76.525070 137.133126 236.471675
2025-08-10 1.867282 6.461819 16.852995 38.584952 78.634407 144.308327 253.824290
2025-08-17 1.450678 5.596490 15.597485 37.448689 79.021920 148.825343 267.422482
2025-08-24 1.170292 5.003443 14.817065 37.121227 80.771796 155.595393 284.797969
2025-08-31 0.886339 4.280773 13.589617 35.709310 80.377021 158.700562 296.347701
2025-09-07 0.772372 4.069467 13.554658 36.787706 84.701737 169.993491 321.636000
2025-09-14 0.593804 3.542920 12.612233 35.766492 84.890932 174.112257 335.196129
2025-09-21 0.522887 3.401480 12.663291 36.969383 89.505164 186.176060 362.447803
2025-09-28 0.372179 2.829856 11.389430 34.939993 87.468810 186.263401 369.400499
2025-10-05 0.328937 2.732893 11.479392 36.166904 92.162134 198.698612 397.900380
2025-10-12 0.285225 2.608120 11.459398 37.116525 96.325784 210.317396 425.345031
2025-10-19 0.254268 2.535727 11.591961 38.459986 101.397172 223.803068 456.449343